Category: Banking

Banking, Blockchains, content creation, cryptography, Digital Currency, tokenization, Uncategorized, XRP

Understanding Grayscale’s XRP Trust ETF Application

Yogi Nelson

by Yogi Nelson

Welcome to the BlockchainAIForum

On August 22, 2025, Grayscale filed an S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch the Grayscale XRP Trust ETF. The SEC must decide whether to approve, or deny, Grayscale’s application by October 25th. That makes today a perfect moment to examine Grayscale’s S-1 application. I’ll focus exclusively on the section labeled Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Conditions and Results of Operations. Keep in mind, what you are about to read is based on the representations made by Grayscale management. Let’s dive in!

Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A)

Structure and Purpose of the Trust

Grayscale, says the Trust is a passive investment vehicle designed to hold XRP. Its shares reflect the value of underlying XRP, less fees and liabilities. Furthermore, the Trust has no officers or employees; instead, it is managed by its Sponsor. Shares are issued in “Creation Baskets” and can be redeemed in exchange for XRP. No leverage or derivatives are employed, underscoring its conservative mandate.

Accounting Policies

The Trust applies U.S. GAAP investment company standards, claim Grayscale. Transactions are recorded on a trade-date basis, with realized gains calculated via specific identification. Valuation is derived from the principal market, determined annually and reviewed quarterly, with Coinbase identified as the key trading venue in recent assessments.

Financial Performance

  • 2024 Inception Period (Sept–Dec 2024): XRP appreciated from $0.54 to $2.10. Net realized/unrealized gain was $7.27 million, driving net assets to $10.45 million by year-end. Approximately 5.0 million XRP were contributed in connection with Share creations.
  • First Half of 2025: XRP rose from $2.10 (Dec 2024) to $2.32 (June 2025). Three-month net gain: $1.26 million; six-month gain: $919,000. Net assets reached $12.89 million by June 30, 2025, reflecting both price appreciation and new XRP contributions.
  • Expenses: The only recurring cost is the Sponsor’s Fee, typically settled in XRP. About 100,000 XRP were liquidated for fees in the first half of 2025.

Liquidity and Cash Handling

The Trust does not hold significant cash balances except for temporary settlement of creations and redemptions, reports Grayscale. Its model minimizes exposure to fiat and focuses solely on XRP. The Sponsor absorbs nearly all expenses except for extraordinary costs, preserving predictability for shareholders.

Market Risks and Disclosures

The Trust neither borrows funds nor invests in derivatives. It faces risks primarily from XRP’s price volatility and regulatory uncertainty. Historical data show XRP’s price ranged from $0.50 to $3.29 between September 2024 and June 2025, with an average of $1.89.

Organizational Updates

In January 2025, Grayscale underwent an internal reorganization. Sponsorship shifted to Grayscale Investments Sponsors, LLC (GSIS), a subsidiary of Digital Currency Group. By May 2025, GSIS became the sole Sponsor of the Trust. This change did not materially affect operations.

Business Section

Trust Overview

Formed in Delaware in August 2024, the Trust’s mandate is to provide institutional-grade exposure to XRP. The Trust will trade under the ticker GXRP on NYSE Arca. Shares will be distributed in 10,000-unit “Baskets” to Authorized Participants, which can create or redeem shares in exchange for XRP or cash.

Investment Objective and Arbitrage Mechanism

The ETF aims to mirror the value of XRP held by the Trust, less expenses. The arbitrage mechanism—where Authorized Participants exploit discrepancies between market price and NAV—keeps the share price aligned with underlying XRP value. Shares may still trade at premiums or discounts, particularly during periods of thin liquidity or divergent trading hours between crypto markets and NYSE Arca.

Characteristics of the Shares

  • Accessibility & Cost Efficiency: Investors avoid the complexity of direct XRP custody.
  • Transparency: Listed on a regulated exchange, prices are visible and liquid.
  • Security: XRP holdings are stored in cold storage by Coinbase Custody, using multi-signature, geographically distributed vaults.
  • Minimal Credit Risk: The Trust does not lend or rehypothecate assets.

Custody and Security

Coinbase Custody Trust Company, LLC is the exclusive custodian. Keys are stored offline in distributed vaults. Transfers require multiple private key shards and verification protocols, reducing single-point-of-failure risks.

Trust Activities

The Trust’s activities include creating and redeeming shares, disposing of XRP for Sponsor’s fees, and distributing assets upon dissolution. It does not actively manage XRP or attempt to generate profits beyond price tracking.

Incidental Rights and Forks

The Trust has adopted a strict policy of abandoning all incidental rights, forks, or airdrops associated with XRP. This simplifies compliance but means shareholders will not benefit from potential windfalls.

Secondary Market Trading

While NAV is based on an index of five major platforms (Coinbase, Bitstamp, Kraken, Crypto.com, LMAX Digital), shares may trade at premiums/discounts on NYSE Arca due to liquidity gaps and non-overlapping trading hours.

XRP Industry Context

The filing outlines XRP’s origins and use case as a bridge currency for cross-border payments. Key details include:

  • Supply: 100 billion XRP were pre-issued; ~59 billion are circulating. Ripple Labs placed 55 billion XRP in escrow to manage supply release.
  • Use Case: XRP enables near-instant, low-cost cross-border settlements compared to traditional methods.
  • Network Governance: Validation relies on a Trusted Node List, with Ripple Labs running 1 of 35 validators.
  • Transaction Fees: Extremely low—0.00001 XRP per transaction—function as spam protection.

Regulatory Environment

The CFTC regulates XRP futures and considers XRP a commodity. The SEC’s stance remains uncertain; a ruling that XRP is a security could dissolve the Trust. In 2025, CME launched XRP futures, subject to heightened CFTC oversight.

Valuation and Index Methodology

NAV is calculated using the CoinDesk Ripple Price Index (XRX), which aggregates volume-weighted prices across exchanges. Methodology emphasizes compliance, liquidity, and AML/KYC adherence. Variances between platforms and the Index have been minimal, averaging less than 1%.

Competitive Differentiation

Grayscale highlights advantages such as institutional-grade custody, transparent methodology, direct XRP ownership, and a competitive fee structure.

Conclusion

Despite challenges such as volatility and regulatory uncertainty, Grayscale has positioned GXRP as a cost-efficient, institutionally secure gateway bridging digital asset markets and traditional securities exchanges, says management. However, investing carries risk, hence do your own research as nothing in this article constitutes financial or investment advice.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson

Austrian economics, Banking, Blockchains, content creation, Decentralized, Digital Currency, Science, Yogi Nelson

Why Crypto-Blockchain Projects Embrace Limited Token Supply: Sound Money in the Digital Age

Yogi Nelson

by Yogi Nelson

Welcome to the BlockchainAIForum

When I entered crypto in 2020, the idea that a project would voluntarily limit its token supply took a moment to process. If the US dollar has an infinite supply, which it does, and all fiat currencies are unlimited also, why would a crypto project have a limited supply? With a background in traditional finance and banking, this was a new concept for me to process. I’m glad I did–it led to a deeper understanding. After reading this article hopefully you also will better appreciate the limited money supply thesis based on Austrian economics.

One of the defining characteristics of many blockchain projects is their decision to implement a fixed or limited token supply. Bitcoin famously caps its maximum issuance at 21 million coins, while Cardano limits its ADA supply to 45 billion units. This scarcity-centric design is not accidental. Rather, it draws heavily from economic theories—particularly those of the Austrian school of economics—and seeks to replicate the stability and credibility once associated with sound money like gold and silver.

The Austrian School of Economics and Sound Money

The Austrian school emphasizes free markets, minimal government intervention, and the intrinsic value of money. Thinkers such as Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, and Friedrich Hayek argued that money should arise organically from the market and maintain value through scarcity, durability, and divisibility.

Austrian economists rejected the idea of government-controlled fiat money, which can be inflated at will by central banks. Given the debasement of the U.S. dollar would you disagree? They argued that sound money—money backed by hard assets like gold or silver—provides a check on political manipulation. When currency supply is limited, governments cannot debase it through unchecked printing, preserving purchasing power and protecting savers.

It is this principle of scarcity-backed trust that Bitcoin and other blockchain projects attempt to re-create in digital form. By fixing supply in advance, blockchains aim to engineer monetary systems that are resistant to manipulation, inflation, and short-term political incentives.

Why Limited Supply Matters in Blockchain Design

  • Scarcity Creates Value: Just as gold’s rarity underpins its value, cryptocurrencies with limited supply derive scarcity-driven appeal. Bitcoin’s 21 million cap ensures that no more coins can ever be created beyond the programmed maximum.
  • Predictable Monetary Policy: Traditional currencies rely on central banks to manage inflation and interest rates. Blockchains like Bitcoin instead employ algorithmic monetary policy, where issuance schedules and maximum supply are transparently coded.
  • Resistance to Inflation: By fixing supply, blockchain projects create systems where inflation cannot erode purchasing power. Bitcoin’s deflationary design means that as adoption increases, demand pressure could increase value rather than diminish it.
  • Incentivizing Early Adoption: Limited supply also creates incentives for early participation. While this can raise issues of inequality, it has proven a powerful bootstrapping mechanism for network adoption.

Bitcoin: The Original Case Study

When Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin in 2009, he embedded Austrian economics deeply into its DNA. The 21 million cap was designed to mimic the scarcity of gold, but with more precision and predictability. Bitcoin’s issuance schedule—the halving cycle every 210,000 blocks—mirrors the decreasing rate at which new gold is mined. This ensures that Bitcoin’s inflation rate asymptotically approaches zero, reinforcing its narrative as digital gold.

Other Projects Following the Scarcity Model

  • Cardano (ADA): Fixed supply at 45 billion tokens.
  • Litecoin (LTC): Hard cap of 84 million coins, designed as silver to Bitcoin’s gold.
  • Ethereum (ETH) & Polkadot (DOT): Contrasting models with no fixed supply, opting for dynamic or inflationary mechanisms.

Critiques of the Limited Supply Approach

  • Deflationary Spiral Risk: Hoarding instead of spending.
  • Inequality Concerns: Early adopters often accumulate disproportionate wealth.
  • Lack of Elasticity: Cannot expand supply in crises like fiat systems can.

Why Scarcity Narratives Resonate Today

Despite criticisms, limited-supply tokens resonate in an era of monetary expansion and fiat uncertainty. Events such as the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic expanded money supplies dramatically. By framing tokens as digital sound money, blockchain projects connect with the intuitive idea that value should be tied to scarcity, not unlimited printing.

Conclusion: Digital Scarcity as a New Monetary Standard?

The decision by Bitcoin, Cardano, and other blockchain projects to cap their token supply is more than a technical feature—it is a philosophical statement. Rooted in Austrian economics, it seeks to restore trust in money through scarcity, predictability, and resistance to manipulation. Whether this model ultimately proves superior to fiat flexibility remains a subject of fierce debate. But the idea of scarcity as value has struck a chord, fueling the growth of blockchain and shaping its monetary experiments. In an uncertain global financial landscape, the allure of limited supply tokens may continue to define the narrative of crypto as the sound money of the 21st century.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson

Banking, Blockchains, content creation, cryptography, Decentralized, Digital Currency, International Finance, sec, tokenization

Should You Be “Bullish” on the Bullish Initial Public Offering (IPO)?

Yogi Nelson

by Yogi Nelson

Welcome to the BlockchainAIForum.

Apparently Summer 2025 is crypto IPO season. Circle’s IPO was a booming success. (Circle issues U.S. backed stable coins.). Will Bullish be bullish or will it fall to the bears. Does it deserve the name Bullish? Or is it too premature to ask or know? As this is not financial or investment advice blog, I suggest you conduct your own independent research. In the mean time, enjoy this article.

Bullish, founded in 2020, is an institutionally focused global digital asset platform that provides trading infrastructure, data services, indices, and media through its core brands: Bullish Exchange and CoinDesk. The company seeks to accelerate adoption of stablecoins, digital assets, and blockchain technology by delivering institutional-grade products backed by compliance, liquidity, and technological innovation. With major acquisitions of CoinDesk (2023) and CCData (2024), Bullish has expanded beyond trading to become a diversified service provider at the intersection of exchanges, financial data, and digital asset media.


Business Overview
Bullish operates two primary divisions:

1. Trading & Liquidity Infrastructure (Bullish Exchange)
– A regulated global exchange for spot, margin, and derivatives trading. 
– Licensed in Germany, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar, with U.S. and other jurisdictional approvals pending. 
– Features a global order book, institutional-grade liquidity, risk management tools, and subscription-based liquidity/stablecoin services. 
– Reported $1.25 trillion+ cumulative trading volume as of March 31, 2025. In 2024, it achieved ~35% and 44% market share in spot trading for Bitcoin and Ethereum respectively among its peer set. 
– Average daily trading volume in Q1 2025 reached $2.55B in spot and $248M in perpetual futures. 

2. Information Services (CoinDesk)
– Indices: Offers proprietary multi-asset benchmarks (e.g., CoinDesk 20 Index) and reference rates like the long-established Bitcoin Price Index (XBX). Collectively, indices support $31.9B AUM and $14.3B in trading volume (March 2025). 
– Data: Provides real-time and historical analytics to over 171,000 professionals, strengthened by CCData’s enhanced market coverage and analytics. 
– Media & Events: Operates CoinDesk.com (55M+ unique visitors in 2024), podcasts, newsletters, and social media channels. The flagship Consensus conference drew 26,000+ attendees in 2025 and expanded globally with events in Hong Kong and Toronto. 

Together, these lines create a synergistic “flywheel” model: data powers indices, indices generate products listed on the exchange, and media amplifies visibility and customer acquisition. Cross-selling and integration remain central to growth.


Management and Governance
The company is led by CEO Thomas W. Farley, former President of the NYSE, who has extensive experience scaling exchanges and integrating acquisitions at Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). The management team combines expertise across traditional finance, digital assets, and technology.

Bullish is incorporated in the Cayman Islands (2021) and qualifies as a foreign private issuer under U.S. securities law, giving it exemptions from certain SEC reporting, disclosure, and NYSE governance requirements. For example, it is not bound by U.S. proxy rules or insider reporting standards. However, this could mean less transparency compared to U.S.-based peers.


Financial Overview
– 2024 Net Income: $80 million. 
– Q1 2025 Net Loss: $349 million, reflecting market volatility and strategic investments. 
– Adjusted EBITDA: $52M (FY 2024); $13M (Q1 2025). 
– Liquid Assets (March 2025): $1.96B, consisting of $1.73B Bitcoin, $144M stablecoins, $28M cash, $22M ETH, and $33M other tokens. Borrowings totaled $551M. 

Bullish emphasizes a conservative treasury strategy to ensure resilience across digital asset price cycles while maintaining flexibility for acquisitions and growth initiatives.

Preliminary Q2 2025 estimates were included, showing continued volatility. Adjusted transaction revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and net income figures were disclosed as non-IFRS guidance but subject to revisions upon final audit.


Market Context and Growth Opportunity
Bullish sees digital assets at an early adoption stage, akin to the internet in the 1990s. Bullish argues it is well positioned to capture value across this multi-trillion-dollar addressable market through its integrated services. By mid-2025, the global digital asset market reached $3.4 trillion in capitalization with 17,000+ cryptocurrencies in circulation. Positive industry trends include: 

– Rising Market Activity: Bitcoin and Ethereum trading volumes surged in late 2024, and wallet adoption doubled between 2022 and 2024. 
– Institutional Adoption: Firms such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs have entered the sector, with Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded products attracting $44B+ inflows by mid-2025. 
– Regulatory Clarity: Frameworks such as the EU’s MiCA, U.S. approval of spot BTC and ETH ETFs, and the U.S. GENIUS Act for stablecoins provide legitimacy and growth opportunities. 
– Technological Advancements: Rapid adoption of stablecoins (>$250B market cap), tokenization, DeFi, and blockchain-based collateral are expanding applications, with projections of $1.6T–$3.7T stablecoin supply by 2030. 


Competitive Advantages
Bullish highlights several differentiators in its IPO filing: 
1. Comprehensive Product Suite: Unified cross-collateralized margin accounts, deep liquidity, and seamless trading infrastructure. 
2. Diversified Business Lines: Exchange, data, indices, and media provide multiple revenue streams and reduce volatility. 
3. Trust and Compliance: Operates regulated platforms and maintains transparent governance. 
4. Technology Leadership: High-performance central limit order book and automated market-making; continuous upgrades to security, scalability, and user experience. 
5. Global Reach: Strong institutional presence with 36% YoY client growth in 2024; CoinDesk’s global audience bolsters customer acquisition. 
6. Capital Strength: $1.9B+ in digital assets available to support liquidity and expansion. 
7. Experienced Leadership: Proven track record in scaling and integrating exchanges. 


Growth Strategy
Bullish plans to drive expansion through five main levers: 
– Licensing Footprint Expansion: Actively pursuing U.S., UK, Canadian, and EU approvals, with multiple state money transmitter licenses already secured. 
– Product Innovation: Continuously launching new trading products (e.g., perpetual futures, indices) and cross-selling into existing customers. 
– Vertical Integration & Collaboration: Cross-leveraging exchange, data, and media businesses to maximize synergies.  
– Customer Base Expansion: Moving beyond institutional clients to target active traders (“prosumers”), using CoinDesk’s reach for cost-effective customer acquisition. 
– Strategic M&A: Future acquisitions will focus on scaling exchange operations, new product development, and geographic expansion, building on the successful integration of CoinDesk and CCData. 


Risks and Challenges
Bullish identifies multiple risks that investors should weigh: 
– Regulatory Uncertainty: Digital assets remain under evolving global regulatory scrutiny, which may limit innovation or expansion. 
– Intense Competition: Competes with both regulated and unregulated platforms, including DeFi, DEXs, and DAOs that may innovate faster. 
– Volatility in Results: Dependent on adoption rates and price swings of digital assets, which drive trading activity and revenues. 
– Operational & Security Risks: Potential loss or mismanagement of private keys, cyberattacks, or system disruptions could harm reputation and operations. 
– Conflicts of Interest: Ownership of CoinDesk as both a news source and business line presents reputational risks. 
– Dependence on Third Parties: Reliance on external banking, insurance, and service providers introduces vulnerabilities. 
– Jurisdictional Complexity: Operating in multiple countries creates compliance risks. 
– Foreign Private Issuer Risks: Exemption from U.S. governance standards may mean less disclosure and oversight than domestic peers. 
– Geopolitical Factors: PRC oversight of Hong Kong, U.S. HFCAA rules, and other geopolitical risks could negatively affect operations or share value. 


Conclusion
Bullish positions itself as a next-generation, diversified digital asset leader at the intersection of trading, data, and media. The company has grown rapidly, securing a top-10 position in Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading, while also building out indices, analytics, and globally recognized events like Consensus. With strong leadership, $1.9B in liquid assets, and a synergistic operating model, Bullish believes it is uniquely positioned to capture growth in the expanding digital assets sector.

However, the IPO also comes with significant risks: regulatory uncertainty, industry volatility, fierce competition, and governance exemptions tied to its foreign private issuer status. Investors are cautioned that while Bullish’s strategy shows promise, its results may remain volatile as the digital asset industry continues to evolve.

Until Next Time,

Yogi Nelson

Banking, Digital Currency, finance, International Finance, sec, tokenization, Yogi Nelson

The SEC and CFTC Joint Statement: Impact on Crypto Trading

Yogi Nelson

by Yogi Nelson

Welcome to the BlockchainAIForum

The trend is clear–the crypto market exchanges and traditional market exchanges are engaged and eventually heading towards marriage! Why this bold declaration–the news coming from Washington.

In a landmark move on September 2, 2025, staff from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a joint statement declaring that exchanges registered with either agency are not prohibited from facilitating trading in certain spot crypto asset products. This declaration, emerging from the coordination between the SEC’s Division of Trading and Markets and the CFTC’s Divisions of Market Oversight and Clearing & Risk, marks a clear regulatory pivot in the landscape of U.S. digital asset markets.

Riding the Wave of “Project Crypto” and “Crypto Sprint”

This initiative forms part of broader frameworks known as Project Crypto (by the SEC) and Crypto Sprint (by the CFTC), both born from recommendations of the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets aimed at fostering U.S. leadership in digital finance innovation. The working group’s report consistently called for regulatory clarity to ensure blockchain experimentation thrives on American soil.

Under these programs, the agencies are collaborating to provide a coordinated path forward: emboldening registered venues to offer leveraged, margined, or financed spot retail commodity transactions — including crypto assets — under existing legal authorities.

What’s Allowed, and How It’s Framed

Importantly, the agencies stress that current law already allows certain registered exchanges—namely SEC-registered national securities exchanges (NSEs) and CFTC-registered designated contract markets (DCMs) or foreign boards of trade (FBOTs)—to facilitate trading in select spot crypto commodity products, even with leverage and margin, without needing new legislation.

This is not, however, a new rule or legal exemption. The statement represents staff views only—it carries no binding force and does not change existing statutes. Exchanges must still proceed through the usual regulatory processes, such as filing rule amendments or requesting relief. Nevertheless, its unlikely “staff” would be permitted to take this action without “approval” from the agencies directors. I make this claim as someone who held senior staff positions in the federal government.

What’s Next, and What Market Participants Should Consider

The joint staff statement serves not just as a signal, but as an invitation to market participants. Agencies have pledged to:

  • Promptly review filings and proposals, encouraging engagement from exchanges seeking to list spot crypto products.
  • Address operational and structural questions, including around custody, clearing, margin, and settlement.
  • Support market surveillance and data transparency, encouraging shared price feeds and real-time dissemination of trade data.
  • Balance innovation with investor protection, remaining open to technological advances while ensuring rigorous oversight.

Legal and compliance professionals advise that any firm planning to launch such offerings should prepare thoroughly by addressing these operational points—effectively a checklist for submission—and engage early with regulators.

Views from the Trenches: Optimism vs. Skepticism

The regulatory move has been widely hailed in the industry as a game-changer—a regulatory green light for mainstream U.S. exchanges to consider crypto listings, potentially including Bitcoin and Ether.

But not everyone sees it that way. Some legal analysts have labeled the statement a “nothingburger”, criticizing its non-binding nature and lack of clarity around how “commodity” versus “security” status will be adjudicated—an unresolved core issue in crypto regulation. I do not agree with those legal analysts–but I’m not an attorney nor is this article legal or financial advice.

Harmonizing Frameworks—Next Up: A Joint Roundtable

This statement represents only the first step. On September 5, 2025, the agencies released a strategic follow-up: a joint statement on regulatory harmonization, announcing a public roundtable on September 29, 2025, to align their frameworks further—spanning product definitions, reporting standards, capital requirements, and coordinated innovation exemptions.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham described the session as a pivotal moment to transform U.S. regulatory coordination into a competitive advantage, enhancing clarity and opening the door to financial innovation. Their remarks signal a shared commitment among regulators to make the U.S. marketplace more efficient, innovative, and investor-friendly.

Implications and Forward Outlook

For the crypto industry, this coordinated stance paves a legal path that could bring regulated exchanges into the fold. Institutional venues like Nasdaq, NYSE, CME Group, and Cboe could consider introducing crypto product offerings—once thought off-limits—if they navigate the filing and operational requirements successfully. That is not a “nothing” burger!

Yet, without binding rules or clarified legal definitions, the shape of this new pathway remains uncertain. Regulatory arbitrage and legal ambiguity could persist unless the agencies deliver clear, binding regulations or frameworks.

Conclusion: Cautious Optimism in a Regulatory Renaissance

The joint statement by SEC and CFTC staff marks a meaningful departure from past reluctance—an encouraging signal that the U.S. is repositioning itself as a hub for blockchain-driven innovation. Market participants now have formal permission to explore spot crypto product offerings—if they comply with existing regulatory expectations.

The upcoming September 29th roundtable offers a critical opportunity to transform this gesture into substantive regulatory reality. For firms, token projects, and exchanges, the message is clear: engage early, act boldly, and help shape the evolving regulatory blueprint for the next era of digital asset markets in the U.S.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson

Artificial Intelligence, Banking, content creation, Credit Cards, Digital Currency, International Finance, Yogi Nelson

The Genius Act and Stablecoins: A Game-Changer for Visa and Mastercard?

Yogi Nelson

by Yogi Nelson

Welcome to the BlockchainAIForum

Introduction

Hollywood and Washington, D.C. share a common trait–they both exaggerate! Recently stable coin legislation was passed into law in Washington–our politicians labeled it genius. Is it? Let’s ask that question from the perspective of Visa and Mastercard–the global duopoly of credit cards.

What Is the Genius Act of 2025?

We begin by understanding the Genius Act. The Genius Act, formally known as the Stablecoin Oversight and Innovation Act, establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins—digital currencies pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar. What does the Genius Act say:

Key provisions include:
– Stablecoin issuers must be licensed by the Federal Reserve or OCC
– Stablecoins must be 100% backed by cash or equivalent assets
– Monthly audits and public disclosures are required
– Consumer protections are explicitly outlined
– Banks and fintech firms can both issue stablecoins under federal supervision

The Genius Act is designed to provide legal certainty, encouraging both institutional adoption and consumer trust in U.S.-based stablecoins. If it succeeds, it might be worthy of its name.

Visa and Mastercard: The Legacy Model

Visa and Mastercard operate on an intermediated model. In essence, they are transaction toll booths, charging a small fee on every swipe, tap, or click.Their core revenues come from:
– Interchange fees charged to merchants for processing credit and debit card payments
– Network fees for facilitating cross-border transactions
– Fraud protection and authentication services

Why Stablecoins Are a Threat

Stablecoins offer a radically different value proposition:
– Instant settlement without intermediaries
– Lower fees—especially for cross-border payments
– 24/7 functionality with no dependence on banking hours
– Programmable money that can enforce rules, automate transactions, or manage subscriptions

With the Genius Act providing legal legitimacy, peer-to-peer payments, retail purchases, and international remittances using stablecoins could bypass traditional credit card rails altogether. This is akin to hotels v Airbnb, taxis to Uber, etc.

Business Model Disruption: The Risk to Visa and Mastercard

1. Revenue Erosion. If merchants and consumers adopt stablecoins for direct payments, interchange and processing fees could decline. Stablecoin transactions—especially over public blockchains—cut out the middleman.

2. Loss of Control Over Settlement. Credit card networks currently manage the full lifecycle of a transaction: authorization, clearing, settlement. Stablecoins shift settlement to blockchain, reducing the value-add of the traditional networks.

3. Emerging Competitors. Startups offering stablecoin wallets, Layer-2 scaling solutions, and DeFi integrations are becoming new challengers. In this environment, Visa and Mastercard may no longer be gatekeepers.

Strategic Response from the Giants

🔗 Integration with Blockchain Rails. Visa has piloted stablecoin settlement on Ethereum using USDC (Circle’s dollar-backed stablecoin). Mastercard has launched its Multi-Token Network to support digital assets.

🤝 Partnering with Crypto Firms. Both have entered partnerships with crypto companies like Coinbase, Binance, and Crypto.com to issue crypto-backed cards and offer fiat-to-stablecoin bridges.

🧾 Tokenized Settlements. Mastercard has explored tokenized bank deposits and blockchain-based remittances, hoping to stay relevant as money goes digital.

💼 Stablecoin Custody and Consulting
Visa and Mastercard could pivot to providing custodial services, stablecoin security layers, or consulting to central banks and financial institutions looking to adopt blockchain

The Cross-Border Payment Revolution

One of the most immediate impacts may be in international payments. Traditional card-based cross-border transactions are slow and expensive. Visa and Mastercard may be forced to rebuild their international payment models around blockchain rails or risk becoming obsolete in this niche. Stablecoins offer instant settlement with minimal fees. Not only do Visa and Mastercard face stablecoin challenges in this area, they must also deal with Ripple XRP and Stellar Lumens XLM.

Expect disruption in:
– Global e-commerce
– Freelancer payments
– Remittance corridors to developing countries

Privacy, Security, and Trust: A Remaining Edge?

Visa and Mastercard still have strong brand trust and robust fraud protection mechanisms. These features matter for both merchants and consumers. Stablecoins must match or exceed these protections to gain widespread adoption. However, if the Genius Act succeeds in establishing a secure and compliant ecosystem for stablecoins, that edge may erode over time.

What the Future May Hold

The Genius Act creates a legal bridge between traditional finance and blockchain-based payments. This opens the door for:
– Direct merchant payments in stablecoins
– Payroll disbursements via crypto wallets
– Loyalty programs powered by tokens
– “Tap to Pay” using stablecoin-enabled apps

If the Genius Act does create that bridge, Visa and Mastercard may need to reinvent themselves as digital infrastructure companies, offering value-added services such as fraud detection, identity verification, and compliance tools for stablecoin-based systems.

Final Thoughts

Visa and Mastercard have spent decades building the infrastructure of global payments. Perhaps they felt secure and comfortable in their duopoly positions. The Genius Act and the stablecoin revolution challenge the very foundation of their model. However, disruption does not necessarily mean extinction. Both Visa and Mastercard have deep pockets and talented staff and are embedded in the financial system. The real test is whether they evolve fast enough to embrace the blockchain-powered future, or whether they will be relegated to legacy status as the world transacts in tokens.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson