Tag: Yogi Nelson

Artificial Intelligence, blockchain association

IS THE BIS (BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS) AN HONEST SOURCE REGARDING DECENTRALIZED FINANCE?

Yogi Nelson

Namaste Yogis.   Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where your blockchain and artificial intelligence technology questions are answered!   Here no question is too mundane.  As a bonus, a proverb is also included.  Today’s question, was submitted by Rufus and he wants to know whether the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) provided an honest assessment of decentralized finance in their recent report, titled Project Atlas? https://www.bis.org/publ/othp76.pdf

Rufus, you came to the right place.  Correct, the BIS did produce Project Atlas, a report that purports to “map out” the world of decentralized and crypto finance.  Project Atlas was released October 2023 by the BIS’s “Innovation Hub”.  Let’s assess their creditability but first a short description of the BIS. 

BIS is headquartered in Switzerland.  BIS is the bank used by central banks to settle transactions.  Holy epidemy of centralized finance Batman!  BIS says it facilitates international monetary cooperation, financial stability and provides banking services to central banks across the globe. 

BIS has an office dedicated to financial innovations.  However, their Innovation Hub did not feel compelled to create decentralized finance.  Given BIS is the epidemy of concentrated finance and its corresponding power, I suppose decentralized finance was not a priority innovation.

BIS says the rise of decentralized finance poses threats and risk.  The BIS is correct. There are threats, there are risks.  The more important questions are, who is threaten and who is at risk by the rise of decentralized finance and crypto? 

According to BIS, central bank regulators are becoming increasingly apprehensive about the scale of crypto markets and their integration with traditional finance.  I can’t help but point out BIS believes research integrity starts by asking central bankers if decentralized finance is a problem! Why not ask central bankers if centralized banking is a problem or what are the problems with centralized banking?  Sorry, for the rude observation Batman!  And, although commercial banks have minimal exposure to crypto markets say the BIS, they are nevertheless nervous.  If that sounds contradictory you are not alone. Let’s move on. 

BIS cites failure of two crypto projects, FTX and Terra, as examples of the “pitfalls” of unregulated finance markets but fails to note neither required taxpayer bailouts.  In other words, decentralized finance poses a threat and risk because business failure is punished with financial loss not rescued by middle class taxpayers. Perhaps BIS has a right to fear the public asking, “why when decentralized finance fails there are no taxpayer bailouts but when traditional finance fails, we are stuck with the bill?”  That indeed is a threat and risk.

BIS says the gaps in their ability to collect decentralize finance data is a threat and risk.  BIS says:

Project Atlas seeks to answer the question: how can central banks harness technologies to gain insights into DeFi markets and gather more reliable and comprehensive statistics on crypto ecosystems?

In other words, BIS, and fellow compadres, want to maintain control.  Their innovation hub consists not to create new technology offering greater freedom; their innovation hub is dedicated to researching how to extend and maintain the incumbent system; a system they own and employ to control the world’s financial system.  Holy transparent agenda Batman!

I will cease but not before pointing out Project Atlas true innovation is it shows centralized finance is threaten by crypto and decentralized finance.  That’s a big deal.

Time to hit the road, but first a proverb from Paraguay: If it doesn’t rain it doesn’t leak, says the man with a damaged roof.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson

Artificial Intelligence

WHAT IS THE STATE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Yogi Nelson

Namaste Yogis.   Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where your blockchain and artificial intelligence technology questions are answered!   Here no question is too mundane.  As a bonus, a proverb is also included.  Today’s question, was submitted by Jayesh and he wants to know what is the state of artificial intelligence?

Jayesh, you came to the right place; I have your answer.  Last week Stanford University Institute for Human Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) released a 500-page report titled, AI Index: The State of AI in 13 charts. The report contains fascinating findings.  Let’s cover the highlights beginning with foundation models by access types in 2023.

A foundation model serves as the fundamental architecture upon which more specialized models are built.  For instance, ChatGPT is a well-known foundation model.  In 2023, there were 149 foundation models released. Fortunately, 66% were open source, meaning they can be freely used and modified by anyone.  In 2021 and 2022, only 31% and 44% were open sourced.  That’s the good news.  The “bad news” –closed source models outperformed open-source models across 10 benchmarks.  Holy lagging behind, Batman!  What about quantity you ask?

When it comes to quantity of AI foundation models in 2023, Google is the leader.  Google released 18, second place Meta knocked out 11, winning the bronze medal was Microsoft with 9.  OpenAI earned honorable mention with 7 models.  One point to consider is the close relationship between Microsoft and Open AI; Microsoft owns 49% of Open AI.  Hence, perhaps a more precise analysis would be to blend the production of Microsoft and Open AI. 

We move onto foundation model by economic sectors and the result is no thunderbolt. If you guessed industry (private for-profit corporations) dominates foundation models, Bingo, move to the head of the class.  With 108 foundation models released in 2023, industry is the epicenter of activity.  Academia lags far behind at only 28, and government is microscopic with only 4 models. 

Building foundation models is expensive.  HAI reports Google spent about $191B, yes, $191B with a “B” to build the Gemini foundation model.  OpenAI, and its ChatGPT came in second with an estimated $78B price tag.  Given these are industry models, investors will expect a return on investments.  Will free models to fade into oblivion in the future?  Let’s see. Speaking of money, private investment in AI is down from the 2021 peak.  Perhaps this explains why ChaptGPT was a sensation in 2022 and 2023 (reaping the results of previous investments?).  Maybe.  HAI reports $96B was spent in 2023, of which 25% went to generative AI.  And of course, private investment dominated in the US. 

What countries are leading the AI race?  Answer:  US and China.  According to HAI, the US released 61 notable foundation models, whereas China had only 15 and the UK 8. 

Let’s wrap up with three more findings, starting with the top five AI corporate adoption use cases.  HAI reports the high flying five are:  contact center automation (26%); personalization (23%); customer acquisition (22%); AI based enhancements of products (22%) and creation of new AI-based products (19%).  When it comes to global opinion, 57% believe AI will change their job in the next five years, 35% say AI is unlikely to impact their job, and 8% are clueless.  Ha, ha! Nervous about AI?  Join the 69% of British nervous Nellies; or perhaps instead chill with South Koreans, where only 44% are nervous.

Time to say goodbye, but first a proverb from Cameroon: Rain does not fall on one roof alone.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson

Artificial Intelligence, Blockchains, France, Productivity

WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ON

Yogi Nelson

PRODUCTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT?

Namaste Yogis.   Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where your blockchain and artificial intelligence technology questions are answered.   Here no question is mundane.  As a bonus, a proverb is also included.  Today’s question, was submitted by Milagros and she wants to know what will be the impact of artificial intelligence on productivity and employment?

Milagros, you came to the right place.  Two days ago, I viewed an interview with Philippe Aghion.  Aghion is a leading French economist who recently published an important research paper on the subject that he presented to French President Emanuel Macron.  Holy influencer, Batman!  Although there are numerous AI experts, this article covers only the perspective of Aghion. 

Aghion limited his research to the impact of AI on productivity and employment.  According to Aghion, the full impact productivity and employment of AI will go beyond electricity and the internet!  Holy big assertion, Batman.  Let’s understand Aghion’s logic.

His first reason is perhaps obvious; AI facilitates automation, and automation means increased productivity.  Easy to agree; let’s move to his second reason.  Aghion says, AI facilitates learning, and again, intuitively he makes sense.  Just like electricity and the internet facilitated learning, in too many ways to itemize here, AI users can learn new skills and information, making them more productive and thus increasing overall productivity.  Aghion’s third point is where he inaugurates new thinking. 

Aghion says, AI is vastly superior to either electricity or the internet in its ability to produce new ideas and these forthcoming innovations will deliver greater productivity and employment. And, unlike electricity and the internet which both eventually plateaued in productively gains, Aghion says the boost in productivity coming from new ideas will continue for an undetermined duration because there is no limit to human ideas.  Last, Aghion says electricity and the internet both took about 10 years before impacting productivity meaningfully; AI is on the same trajectory.  Time to examine what Aghion says concerning employment—it’s not all rosy.

Let’s start with the good news.  Aghion claims that automation creates more net employment. He says automation adopters become more efficient and pass along the benefits to customers in lower prices and better quality.  He further claims, that although competitors may lose jobs, the overall market size grows because new customers enter and employment in the sector grows.  Analogous to what Henry Ford did in the automobile industry. 

As expected, Aghion believes certain industries might be in jeopardy and offered three examples: IT security firms, production process companies, and machine learning firms (e.g., call centers).  With regards to employment impacts, he divided his analysis into significant, moderate, and little to no effect.  Aghion identified clerks, secretaries, and accountants as the three most likely adversely impacted occupations.  Aghion says architects, lawyers, and perhaps health care fall in the moderate group.

Aghion concluded with a few recommendations starting with government policy to prevent oligopolies from dominating AI.  He notes large firms are not necessarily innovators, but small firms are.  Second, open-sourced AI is essential to transparency and long-term viability.  Third, protection of personal data must be a priority.  Last, is job training and re-education for displaced workers.  Aghion forecasts 20% of all jobs will be eliminated or nearly eliminated by AI over the next decade. Therefore, generous re-education, training, and unemployment benefits will be required.

Time to quit before AI grabs my money losing blog, (ha ha) and share a French proverb:

“You should turn your tongue around in your mouth seven times before you speak.”

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson

Artificial Intelligence, Blockchains, France, Yogi Nelson

A GLIMPSE AT MISTRAL—THE FRENCH LEADER IN THE AI REVOLUTION

Yogi Nelson

Namaste Yogis.   Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where your blockchain and artificial intelligence technology questions are answered!   Here no question is too mundane.  As a bonus, a proverb is also included.  Today’s question, was submitted by Luis from Malibu and he wants to know is Mistral leading the French AI revolution?

Luis, you came to the right place. Your question has perfect timing. I just returned from France and am feeling the French vibe! Rather than covering the entire waterfront of AI developments in France, I’ll limit myself to a French company named Mistral.  Let’s start with a bit of background on Mistral, including its name which is French to the core–c’est la vie!

The word mistral has multiple uses in French.  Not only does Mistral mean a cold northwesterly wind, but it’s also not uncommon for companies in industries related to wind energy, sailing, or the environment to use it in their name. The French say it evokes a sense of power, speed, and a connection to the natural world. It can also mean masterly.  While traveling in France, I noticed Mistral as a last name as we say in the USA or as they say in France, the family name.  Holy multi-tasking word, Batman!  Now a word about the Mistral team and company mission.

With fewer than two dozen members, the Mistral team is small.  According to Mistral, their mission is to make frontier AI ubiquitous, and to provide tailor-made AI to all developers.  Mistral says, their mission requires fierce independence, strong commitment to open, portable, and custom solutions, and an extreme focus on shipping the most advanced technology in limited time.  How I discovered Mistral comes next, followed by what Mistral does, and what it offers.

Approximately three months ago I discovered Mistral while researching AI projects for this blog.  I attempted access but was denied.  Instead, Mistral put me on a waiting list of interested users and recently granted me access with a full disclosure that their large language model (LLM) is in beta testing status. 

Today, I put Mistral’s LLM, Le Chat, to the test against, two American companies—Open AI’s ChatGPT and Microsoft’s Co-Pilot– by asking all three identical questions.  All three-offer free access to their LLM services.  I won’t detail the contest; it’s not necessary.  Essentially, Mistral is lacking behind the competition.  Why Mistral trails, is a matter of speculation.  Perhaps its funding related?  Or maybe Mistral team size means it’s too small to compete with the titans? Could be they started later?  I don’t know, but I do know the competition is ahead.  Okay, now we go beyond their LLM to a preview of Mistrals AI products. 

On their website, Mistral has a click option labeled La Plataforme (the Platform).  This is where you’ll find the heart of their offerings and services.  Basically, La Plataforme is a subscription service.  For a fee, Mistral offers access to their AI developer tools. Mistral claims the tools permits users to develop AI agents and other related products.  The subscription grants access to the latest Mistral models and to pay based on what you use.  That’s a good feature.  Moreover, users can set monthly spending limits and if there are multiple users with an enterprise, Mistral will centralize billing.  The subscription grants access to the corresponding documentation and of course users can create API keys to access Mistral AI.

Time to say “au revoir” (goodbye) but not before sharing this French proverb:  Only imbeciles don’t change their opinions.”   Well said, my French friends!

Sincerely,

Yogi Nelson

Artificial Intelligence, Blockchains, China, international aid

IS CHINA USING ITS INTERNATIONAL AID TO PROMOTE ITS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TECH AND GAIN MARKET DOMINANCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?

Yogi Nelson

Namaste Yogis.   Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where your technology questions are answered!   Here no question is too mundane.  As a bonus, a proverb is also included.  Today’s question, was submitted by Marcia in Palmdale, CA and she wants to know is China using its international aid to advance use of its artificial intelligence technology and gain market dominance in developing countries?

Marcia, you came to the right place.  You ask a tough question, fortunately there is an organization headquartered in Santa Monica, CA that researches the subject and their name is RAND.  RAND stands for Research and Development Corporation. Let’s understand RAND then answer your specific question.  

RAND is a non-profit public policy research organization.  RAND was established in 1948 with the intent of providing non-partisan policy research and analysis.  Almost 100% of RAND’s 1,800 research staff members have either a Ph.D. or master’s degree.   With seven offices spread across the globe in the USA, UK, and Australia, RAND has a worldwide audience.  Last year RAND launched 800+ new research projects funded by more than 350 clients.  RAND conducts policy research across 10 subjects, including national security.  Bottom line–RAND is an impressive research organization consisting of brainy people.  Holy nerds, Batman!  Now let’s turn to the question asked by Marcia.

According to RAND, at $85B per year, China is the world leader in development finance.  USA development finance falls a far second at only $45B per year.  RAND says, Chinese tech companies can use this large government funding support to deploy state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) tools in development contracts in recipient countries. And therefore, the AI exports facilitated by these arrangements are likely to bolster China’s growing global AI technology-related supply chains, trade flows, technology standards, and regulatory systems.  In other words, when China provides development finance (aid) to Pakistan, for example, the contract with Pakistan, will include conditions that require Pakistan to use Chinese AI technology.  Holy foot in the door, Batman! 

Given the situation, RAND’s national security team was contracted (they don’t say by whom, but you can safety assume a branch of the U.S. government) to explore two questions:

1.  How can China’s AI exports be systematically tracked and analyzed using reliable data sources?

2.  What would promote a better understanding of the global landscape of China’s AI exports?

China does not participate in the International Aid Transparency Initiative.  Hence, researchers tracked Chinese development finance by receiving countries. Researchers used OCED (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) data in their research. The dataset captured all official financial and in-kind commitments from China from 2000–2021 to developing countries.

First, let’s look at the published findings of the 33-page report.   https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2696-1.html  followed by a few words regarding unpublished findings, as perhaps those too are interesting. 

Reported Findings:

  • Researchers discovered 155 AI applications and AI infrastructure projects that were exported to 64 countries
  • The researchers used GIS to map their findings.  Although Pakistan was the largest beneficiary, the map clearly shows most Chinese aid was dedicated to African nations.   

Unreported Findings:

The report has six blank pages and no explanation for the blank pages is offered. The blank pages are not labeled, “Intentionally Left Blank”.  The pages are simply blank with no explanation whatsoever.  And no mention of what who paid for the report!  Holy mystery, Batman!

I end with a proverb from Pakistan:  The friend appears in hard times, not at big dinners.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson