AI Agents, Artificial Intelligence, Blockchains, cryptography, Uncategorized, Yogi Nelson

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Artificial Intelligence, blockchain association, Blockchains, Yogi Nelson

Coinbase’s Political Mobilization of Crypto Owners: Analyzing the Strategy

Namaste Yogis. Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where your blockchain and artificial intelligence technology questions are answered! As a bonus, a proverb is also included. Today’s question, was submitted by Eduardo from Panama, and he wants to know why Coinbase has decided to enter American politics and what difference will it make?

Eduardo, you came to the right place. I’ll answer your questions as you presented them, beginning with why Coinbase decided to get political. Of course Coinbase is the largest centralized American crypto exchange platform. Think of Coinbase as the Charles Schwab of crypto asset trading.

Coinbase has learned two old lessons. First, businesses need friends in politics, especially if they intend to disrupt powerful entrenched interest and incumbents. Coinbase failed to recognize incumbents transform their economic power into political might and thereby prevent, minimize, and/or sabotage new entries into the market. Second, Coinbase neglected to mobilize their constituency into a political movement from day one. Instead Coinbase relied on business and legal strategies to win the competition and failed to recognize the war has three fronts—business, legal, and political. Coinbase is now playing catchup. Essentially, Coinbase jumped into politics out of necessity. Let’s now examine Coinbase’s political strategy?

Coinbase claims 52M Americans own crypto. Coinbase didn’t cite a source but let’s suppose their numbers are correct. Crypto owners are adults and therefore of voting age. In the 2020 presidential election, 155M votes where casted: 81M for Biden and 74M for Trump. Neither candidate was “pro-crypto”. Both were anti-crypto, and crypto was not an election issue.

In 2024 crypto will most likely be a third-tier national issue, behind the economy, war, taxes, environment, abortion rights, gun control, Supreme Court, etc. However, for crypto-fundamentalists it could be a first-tier issue or tiebreaker voting matter. The questions then become how many crypto-fundamentalists voters are there, do they live in swing states where 1-2% make a significant difference, and what is their propensity to vote?

According to Coinbase, “… we are launching an effort to mobilize 52M crypto owners—younger and more diverse than the US population as a whole—into a powerful force heading into the 2024 election with an intense effort on nine key states”. Let’s examine this strategy.

A focus on nine key states makes sense on the surface. However, the swing states population are not younger and more diverse. Hence, there is a disconnect in the strategy. Moreover, younger, and diverse voters favor the Democratic Party. However, Republicans are perceived as more crypto friendly, particularly after Trump’s recent speech in Nashville at the Bitcoin conference. Will young and diverse voters abandon the Dems in meaningful numbers over crypto regulations–extremely unlikely.

Coinbase wants crypto to be a non-partisan issue; that makes perfect business sense. Coinbase is motivated to mobilize younger and more diverse voters because those are their customers. Dem voters are also younger and diverse. Hence, the smart political maneuver is for the Dems to capitalize on the efforts of Coinbase by becoming crypto friendly and motivate voters that are proportionately more in the Dems camp. Dems have every incentive to become crypto friendly because their natural constituency is there waiting. Making the switch now blunts the trend of crypto becoming a wedge issue. Additionally, it stymies the Republican party from developing an advantage with younger voters via crypto now. Harris can start by distancing herself from the anti-crypto zealous, e.g., Elizabeth Warren, kicking Gensler off the team, and appearing before the crypto community to listen, not just talk.

I conclude with a proverb from Estonia: “What village dogs will not eat wolves will not eat either”.

Sincerely,

Yogi Nelson