Tag: cryptocurrency

Blockchains

WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL FINANCE ADOPTION ACCORDING TO MOODY’S?

Yogi Nelson

Namaste Yogis.   Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where your technology questions are answered, mostly correct!   Here no question is too mundane.  As a bonus, a proverb is also included.  Today’s question, comes from Oswaldo, in New York, and he wants to know what does Moody’s Investor Service (Moody’s) forecast for digital finance adoption in 2024 and beyond?

Oswaldo, you came to the right place.  On December 14, the Decentralized Finance office of Moody’s released a report, titled: 2024 Outlook: Digital Finance Slowly, Steadily Moves Towards Interoperability and Standardization.  The research was led by Christiano Ventricelli; here is the link:  https://www.moodys.com/research/Decentralized-Finance-and-Digital-Assets-Global-2024-Outlook-Digital-finance-Outlook–PBC_1386273?cid=web-ntrnlbnnr-16640  Before jumping into their forecast, first let’s understand who is Moody’s?

Moody’s has been around since 1908 and it offers credit ratings, macro-economic forecasting, and several other services, including Investor Service.   Moody’s produces research papers across numerous financial topics, including digital finance.  With that short introduction, let’s examine Moody’s four findings.

Mass Adoption Will Need More Interoperability and Standardization.  According to Moody’s, blockchain technology has numerous potential benefits, including greater efficiency and potential cost savings.  Blockchain enthusiasts agree.  I concur with Moody’s that until and unless blockchains reach interoperability the benefits of blockchain may not materialize.  What Moody’s did not say, but I will, is blockchains need a “Wi-Fi moment”.  Imagine if Wi-Fi was not seamless and users had to switch constantly to maintain a connection?  What a mess!  This is the state of public blockchains today. There are bridges under construction to connect blockchains, but most are too tiny, weak, and not suitable at enterprise scale.

Asset tokenization will keep growing, but reliable digital cash options remain elusive. Yes, asset tokenization will result in convergence between traditional and digital finance.  Agreed. And, yes, it’s true there are tech and regulatory risk considerations.  However, I part ways with Moody’s regarding digital cash adoption options.  Moody’s believes Central Bank Digital Currencies are better positioned to be a secure form of digital cash over stable coins.  In the USA probably true. However, across the globe government creditability on matters of monetary policy is at rock-bottom; hence, let’s withhold judgment.

Cryptocurrency market’s revival hinges on monetary policy and service operators’ regulatory compliance. There are dozens, perhaps hundreds, of industries whose viability hinge on monetary policy.  Cheap money is positive for crypto, and all assets. What drives crypto goes beyond interest rates and monetary policy.  Crypto is also an ideological movement.  Crypto enthusiasts want a new monetary policy–an alternative that Jerome can’t control.  Hence, suggesting the crypto market hinges on traditional finance is missing the point. 

As former federal bank regulatory compliance officer, I am unaware of any industry that can operate at scale outside regulatory compliance other than organized crime!  Holy criminal enterprise, Batman! Hence, the findings are not surprising.  And yes, crypto needs clarity.  Is it a security?  Is it a commodity?  Etc.

Digital asset regulatory frameworks advance, though regional differences will persist. Bingo, Moody’s is on target.  Europe, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates are all establishing regulatory clarity.  Therefore, regional differences will arise in crypto as they do in traditional securities regulations.  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF soon.  An Ethereum spot EFT is on the horizon. The SEC recently sued Coinbase, the largest crypto exchange in the USA, for selling unregistered securities.  Between the Coinbase case, and the 2024 Presidential Election, clarity maybe on the horizon.

I close with a proverb from Moldova: Wine is a traitor.  It starts as a friend and ends as an enemy.

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson

Uncategorized

WHAT DID VITALIK BUTERIN RECENTLY SAY ABOUT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Yogi Nelson

Namaste Yogis. Welcome to the Blockchain & AI Forum, where questions are answered, mostly correct! Here no question is too mundane. As a bonus, a proverb is also included. Today’s question comes from Art in San Francisco, CA. Art asks what does Vitalik Buterin think of artificial intelligence?

Art, you came to the right place. Before I explain Vitalik’s thoughts, let’s know Buterin first. Vitalik is a 29-year-old Russian Canadian computer programmer and a co-founder of Ethereum. Ethereum is a decentralized blockchain network, known for pioneering smart contracts, among other advancements in computation. From an early age Vitalik demonstrated an amazing ability to grasp mathematics and computer science. That’s not a surprise given his father was a computer scientist. Holy, like father, like son, Batman! Given his genius with computers, it makes sense you would ask what Vitalik makes of AI.

On November 23, Vitalik published his “My Techno Optimism” paper.
https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2023/11/27/techno_optimism.html?ref=bankless.ghost.io Vitalik’s summary perspective is below followed by highlights from across the major points of his paper.

“I believe in a future that is vastly brighter than the present thanks to radically transformative technology, and I believe in humans and humanity. I reject the mentality that the best we should try to do is to keep the world roughly the same as today but with less greed and more public healthcare. However, I think that not just magnitude but also direction matters. There are certain types of technology that much more reliably make the world better than other types of technology. There are certain types of technology that could, if developed, mitigate the negative impacts of other types of technology. The world over-indexes on some directions of tech development, and under-indexes on others. We need active human intention to choose the directions that we want, as the formula of “maximize profit” will not arrive at them automatically.”

Vitalik Buterin, My Techno-Optisium

Buterin argues there are very high costs to delaying technological progress. He cites life expectancy improvements and the internet, as evidence for not holding back technological advancements. Vitalik makes the case for using advancements in AI to solve environmental challenges, including climate change.

Vitalik believes AI is fundamentally different from previous advancements in technology and therefore requires significantly more consideration. Vitalik says AI is the creation of a new and powerful brain whereas previous inventions were contraptions. “AI is a new type of mind that is rapidly gaining in intelligence, and it stands a serious chance of overtaking humans’ mental faculties and becoming the new apex species on the planet”, says Buterin. Vitalik cites scientists that are worried AI could wipe out humanity! Holy doomsday, Batman!

Buterin, is equally concerned with “digital authoritarianism”. Vitalik points out Open AI, with a mere 500 employees, services 100,000,000 customers with immensely powerful machines! Power could be centralized by just a handful of people one day, is Vitalik’s worry.

Vitalik pens a lengthy narrative regarding the e/acc movement. According to Vitalik, e/acc is “… fundamentally about an appreciation of the truly massive benefits of technological progress, and a desire to accelerate this trend to bring those benefits sooner.” Jeff Bezos is the most prominent advocate. In a point-by-point fashion, Buterin shares what he believes are the implications of e/acc across a range of topics, including: military technology, decentralized governance, cyber security, multi-planetary living, world government, to name a few topics.

We conclude today with this proverb from the Dominican Republic: With patience and calm, a donkey can climb a palm tree. Well said my Caribbean brethren!

Until next time,

Yogi Nelson